TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Spurs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,303,948
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,379,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,303,948 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,932 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7606…2836backed Spurs59c279,788$163,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,970.162365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Warriors39c206,592$79,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126,878.119249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Warriors43c123,082$52,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,554.492,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors45c93,531$42,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,415.684,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs57c74,347$42,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,690.322,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Warriors43c69,000$29,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,619.9417354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Warriors43c67,162$28,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,383.7272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors33c57,388$18,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,412.35,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Spurs58c50,000$29,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,999.8912334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Spurs56c43,357$24,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,221.78744.8%39 W · 48 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs57c42,062$24,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,106.922,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Spurs58c40,000$23,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,20038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Spurs56c35,000$19,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,699.934456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Spurs66c30,348$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Spurs71c30,000$21,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,299.9922457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Warriors43c25,410$10,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,603.5623135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Warriors43c23,782$10,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,507.579838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Spurs53c22,543$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0008251.2%42 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf915…388fbacked Warriors51c22,135$11,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,818.35977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors26c21,518$5,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,852.22,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Warriors42c21,437$9,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,337.935250%26 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Warriors42c21,085$8,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,182.0312740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Spurs57c20,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,399.8459653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Spurs56c18,000$10,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,159.9914853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs58c17,381$10,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,076.8585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb545…cb72backed Warriors42c16,950$7,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8313100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+69.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Warriors47c16,807$7,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,907.7459646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b2…5519backed Warriors43c16,200$6,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2342100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Spurs58c15,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,70012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Warriors43c14,049$6,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,032.8826038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Spurs57c13,860$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,900.4620253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs57c12,500$7,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,18573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b11…c12ebacked Spurs58c12,150$7,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,04720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x951d…8385backed Spurs58c12,100$7,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,017.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccdb…afc6backed Warriors44c11,732$5,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,549.48520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-54.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Warriors44c10,785$4,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,075.296352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec1…50cdbacked Spurs57c10,525$5,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.134351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc02f…dfa2backed Spurs57c10,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,700475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+58.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Spurs57c10,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.997946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2844…2420backed Spurs56c9,730$5,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,449560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Spurs57c9,285$5,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,292.4569852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Spurs57c9,258$5,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,307.7544648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d96…443ebacked Warriors38c9,141$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,641.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+80.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors43c9,022$3,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,155.529,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d5…3dfebacked Spurs59c8,900$5,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,25110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6307…fb7cbacked Spurs57c8,700$4,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,959616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7682…07fdbacked Spurs57c8,500$4,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,845540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Warriors42c8,500$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,929.9666250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Spurs59c8,475$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Spurs54c8,333$4,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,493.1476850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2983…7a63backed Warriors45c8,200$3,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,528757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Spurs30c8,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Spurs1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Warriors43c7,950$3,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,570.7648944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a1…1f47backed Spurs56c7,947$4,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,450.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18e2…5622backed Warriors44c7,935$3,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…795ebacked Spurs56c7,812$4,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,374.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcf…1004backed Warriors44c7,805$3,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,370.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x886a…1ee3backed Spurs56c7,057$3,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,951.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37f…20f7backed Warriors44c7,045$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,945.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x917d…d28dbacked Spurs58c7,024$4,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,074.13560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…4f5ebacked Spurs56c7,005$3,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,922.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Spurs53c7,000$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,71020746.4%96 W · 111 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…b707backed Warriors44c6,994$3,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,916.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Warriors36c6,952$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,431.192,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Spurs68c6,586$4,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,466.7115461.7%95 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08eb…aaa8backed Warriors42c6,519$2,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,780.91616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Spurs57c6,435$3,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,646.4751753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18d0…5407backed Spurs56c6,200$3,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,472742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Spurs75c6,112$4,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,583.981,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b71…19ebbacked Warriors44c6,000$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3602100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+186.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors42c6,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.961,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Warriors35c5,968$2,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,867.491,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e61…adf9backed Spurs51c5,834$2,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,948580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Warriors36c5,534$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,534.241,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Spurs58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.9844337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Warriors41c5,000$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,949.941,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Warriors22c4,969$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,886.461,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Warriors43c4,949$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,803.062263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e75…f819backed Warriors43c4,912$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe57f…3ebcbacked Spurs57c4,912$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Warriors42c4,874$2,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,826.874447.7%21 W · 23 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d6f…f352backed Spurs58c4,711$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.311163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+46.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Warriors42c4,600$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,66862351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca8…ddddbacked Spurs55c4,577$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50027846.8%130 W · 148 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors40c4,220$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,514.643,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Spurs58c4,111$2,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,382.5315274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7535…b3dcbacked Spurs3c4,052$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.14911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-83.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Warriors30c4,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80050838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Spurs56c4,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,24018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Warriors21c4,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,179.991921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Warriors47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x81ec…f8b2backed Warriors42c3,986$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+83%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb9…74bfbacked Warriors49c3,863$1,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.934100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bb1…37d4backed Warriors42c3,820$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,215.65771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ea…6254backed Spurs55c3,793$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.59944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddfc…38e5backed Spurs57c3,509$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Spurs57c3,502$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9969445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1467…51e3backed Warriors30c3,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45010941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Warriors45c3,481$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.766155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.