TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,850

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,607 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over45c1,211$546 inLost-$546.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea60…e977backed Under55c943.64$519 inWon+$424.649159.3%54 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under54c266.01$144 inWon+$122.362,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over45c230.97$104 inLost-$103.932,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Under59c192.71$114 inWon+$79.0111755.6%65 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under57c100$57 inWon+$431,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Under57c70.18$40 inWon+$30.186259.7%37 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over43c70.18$30 inLost-$30.182,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe398…ee2ebacked Under56c53.75$30 inWon+$23.757650%38 W · 38 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Under56c44.64$25 inWon+$19.6419451.5%100 W · 94 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over44c43.75$19 inLost-$19.251,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc22…1365backed Under59c28.81$17 inWon+$11.811968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf597…f4aebacked Under55c27.27$15 inWon+$12.274645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7b8…8e45backed Under59c20.34$12 inWon+$8.342171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Under52c20$10 inWon+$9.631538.1%120 W · 195 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.