NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a2cc843c507bed15ce46c095bab152f94b515b46c96148331ba0c9ef2f2ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Spurs, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e5a…8f58backed Spurs | 48c | 7,448$3,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540.68 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Warriors | 52c | 7,171$3,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,442.04 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 53c | 6,744$3,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,169.83 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 52c | 5,479$2,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,629.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Spurs | 47c | 2,750$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Spurs | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8265…e0eebacked Spurs | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Spurs | 48c | 2,032$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.36 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 51c | 1,206$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.09 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Spurs | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Spurs | 50c | 900$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.87 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 52c | 887.99$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.24 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs | 48c | 627$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 48c | 592.01$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 53c | 518$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.46 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Spurs | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Warriors | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Spurs | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…56a2backed Spurs | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8835…7d7ebacked Spurs | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…c987backed Spurs | 47c | 207$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4c…1d5dbacked Warriors | 53c | 192$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Spurs | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Warriors | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Spurs | 42c | 86.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…2348backed Spurs | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Spurs | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 49c | 61.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Warriors | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Spurs | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Spurs | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Spurs | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…44febacked Warriors | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Spurs | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Warriors | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-0.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. SpursWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.