NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x751db645d886ed3c7f1db1e46cc7025e4fd26c2d74ca94caa8f0ed68ef90a26b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Spurs, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa117…a311backed Warriors | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Warriors | 50c | 5,882$2,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940.85 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Spurs | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs | 51c | 4,743$2,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.93 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Spurs | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 49c | 2,999$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.73 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs | 51c | 1,883$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.67 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Warriors | 47c | 1,552$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.47 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Spurs | 51c | 1,164$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.64 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 49c | 1,073$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.29 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 49c | 1,041$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.71 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 51c | 1,027$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Spurs | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Warriors | 51c | 850$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 48c | 661$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.87 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Spurs | 51c | 607.24$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.69 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…d5b3backed Warriors | 47c | 570$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079d…18ffbacked Spurs | 53c | 570$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf02…38b9backed Spurs | 52c | 448.13$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.03 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Spurs | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Spurs | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Spurs | 51c | 352.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Warriors | 49c | 299.96$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Spurs | 53c | 235.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…e02abacked Warriors | 50c | 228.64$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3e…e557backed Warriors | 50c | 204$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 48c | 194$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Spurs | 52c | 193$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Spurs | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Warriors | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…18edbacked Spurs | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 49c | 178.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Spurs | 50c | 159.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Warriors | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Spurs | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Spurs | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Spurs | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors | 49c | 99.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…55eabacked Spurs | 51c | 99.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Spurs | 51c | 98.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Spurs | 39c | 98.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Spurs | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Spurs | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Spurs | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…0893backed Spurs | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Warriors | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Spurs | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Spurs | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Spurs | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…751ebacked Spurs | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…2ca4backed Spurs | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…1466backed Spurs | 51c | 39.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…4da0backed Spurs | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Spurs | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Spurs | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ec…9684backed Spurs | 54c | 27.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-0.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. SpursWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.