NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4285526525b6856599e11bf71a877850d077eb47177e14eb6d107b71a5fa2c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over | 48c | 55,821$26,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,792.19 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 34,711$18,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,682.27 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 51c | 12,571$6,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,187.47 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Under | 52c | 6,667$3,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 4,206$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.8 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 53c | 3,490$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.3 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 48c | 2,504$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.24 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…22f6backed Under | 52c | 2,285$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Over | 52c | 2,190$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,842$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Under | 52c | 1,392$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.16 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 52c | 766$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.32 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…4362backed Over | 51c | 590$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…8645backed Under | 49c | 590$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.27per pick | 48cpaid | -57%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 587$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.75 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 52c | 580$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 49c | 510$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Under | 51c | 415.83$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.76 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…431abacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…bd81backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 48c | 333$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ba…b928backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Under | 54c | 183.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 51c | 140.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…089abacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd1…8f31backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 47.2%119 W · 133 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…bc8abacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 52c | 36.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-0.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. SpursWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.