Music · resolved market
Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc60ea27c2acb3ce6ed052f628e8c12d315d8bb3a2e1e1d5f248e255e1b7ecccb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 12c | 3,811$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed No | 14c | 1,184$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…f3cabacked No | 12c | 1,156$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 18c | 1,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.55 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 943.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 14c | 748.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 4c | 720.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked No | 21c | 680.48$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed No | 4c | 469.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…ed0fbacked No | 7c | 469.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…8985backed No | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 14c | 428$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 10c | 396.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 79c | 348$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 79c | 200.59$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…6b9ebacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed No | 24c | 194.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…8d66backed No | 22c | 190$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 78c | 166.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 23c | 153.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…0418backed No | 10c | 152$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…74e8backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 74c | 143.16$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 140.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…e99dbacked No | 27c | 131.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c70…f9e1backed No | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 15c | 114.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…5a56backed No | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 101$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…2f88backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…b790backed No | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed Yes | 78c | 81.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d9…ea2fbacked Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…d12cbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed Yes | 76c | 48.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…ed86backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…2b65backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.