Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 33-34°F on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x076961c0ba03af3e21d31b26fa3f249aa915ad554586d78fc36832bc8a379eca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 2,743$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.87 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…0882backed No | 45c | 2,300$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 50c | 2,294$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.26 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be2…bc98backed Yes | 49c | 2,200$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdb…f7c7backed Yes | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a7…e973backed No | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45b…b357backed No | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…6ca1backed Yes | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 20c | 955.42$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.37 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163b…4f54backed Yes | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf80…fc8fbacked Yes | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1ad1backed No | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 61c | 731.56$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.85 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6403…b75abacked No | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7d…2e80backed Yes | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0033…973ebacked No | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 51c | 417.8$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 13c | 400$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 18c | 313.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 50c | 277$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 17c | 270$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3a…c2c0backed Yes | 48c | 210.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 13c | 204.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 52c | 203.35$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 49c | 199.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 167.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 46c | 161.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 37c | 149.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 39c | 146.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 49c | 123.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 56c | 112.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 112.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 40c | 109.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 49c | 106.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 54c | 104$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked Yes | 40c | 103$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 54c | 102.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 54c | 101.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 43c | 88.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed Yes | 57c | 88.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 19c | 86.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…3201backed Yes | 51c | 77.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 43c | 73.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 65.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 55.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…9e3ebacked Yes | 50c | 43.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 50c | 40.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…0af2backed Yes | 55c | 36.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc32c…d102backed Yes | 57c | 34.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…25f2backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 53c | 22.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…c9d7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 33-34°F on December 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or below on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or higher on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 27-28°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 29-30°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 31-32°F on December 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.