TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,634
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,145

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,634 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes4c17,989$805 inLost-$804.54,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes1c3,000$44 inLost-$4438410.7%41 W · 343 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+103.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8654…5fe0backed Yes25c2,050$513 inLost-$512.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…dff0backed Yes27c1,450$392 inLost-$391.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde64…6ad7backed Yes19c1,145$216 inLost-$216.164346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5c…8258backed Yes22c1,100$242 inLost-$24210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f4…95f3backed No78c1,100$858 inWon+$2421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes7c999.37$74 inLost-$73.5846626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes2c765$12 inLost-$11.7672726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x20a1…2a7dbacked No73c740$540 inWon+$199.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f50…7d99backed No73c700$511 inWon+$1891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb637…ad3ebacked No75c700$525 inWon+$1751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2a…1d3ebacked No75c680$510 inWon+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f9…6a4abacked No75c670$503 inWon+$167.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes12c299.99$36 inLost-$3666735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc55f…d26abacked Yes20c250$51 inLost-$518637.2%32 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes17c200$33 inLost-$332955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4dd…737abacked No78c200$156 inWon+$441330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick61cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x800b…a0c4backed Yes17c182.94$32 inLost-$31.59616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-77.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c144.81$22 inLost-$21.642,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes17c100$17 inLost-$17.3372125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes15c79.99$12 inLost-$1293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes16c65.26$10 inLost-$10.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221b…d2afbacked No79c20$16 inWon+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb905…1640backed No79c15$12 inWon+$3.158747.1%41 W · 46 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.