Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 31-32°F on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21521915fa31e1e85caab1bc70e6657d54f83f358c60114c2d2efc8e569c8ee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca24…9967backed Yes | 30c | 2,170$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 47c | 2,156$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.78 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3948…0e95backed Yes | 28c | 1,380$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 24c | 1,084$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 32c | 803.83$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.21 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 80c | 762.72$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…64f8backed No | 70c | 730$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bff…e0c4backed No | 70c | 720$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b1…455bbacked No | 70c | 720$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da1…4750backed No | 72c | 715$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 31c | 701.78$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.15 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2447…e9f8backed No | 72c | 665$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 21c | 599.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…7626backed Yes | 29c | 549.06$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 57c | 495$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.8 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…caf7backed Yes | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 74c | 293.33$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.95 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 285$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 73c | 249.41$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…eed1backed No | 80c | 249.15$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 222.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 70c | 219.8$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 218.03$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…4b54backed Yes | 56c | 212.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +253.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 68c | 200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 32c | 199.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 76c | 187.72$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 78c | 181.52$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…0af2backed Yes | 30c | 164.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…7c77backed Yes | 79c | 159$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 20c | 155.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.03 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 64c | 149$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 142.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 135$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 31c | 129.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 67c | 119$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…e888backed Yes | 64c | 117.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…feddbacked Yes | 35c | 113.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +201%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d39…c505backed Yes | 37c | 109$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 79c | 101.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…970bbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…737abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 72c | 94.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456f…9430backed Yes | 64c | 87.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 32c | 82.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 23c | 82.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 30c | 80.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 22c | 80.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 78.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…87eebacked Yes | 30c | 73.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 15c | 69.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 38c | 69.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 64.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a65…5b95backed Yes | 53c | 56.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 57c | 51.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 41c | 36.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 29.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…2fa6backed Yes | 60c | 26.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed Yes | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49df…d594backed Yes | 61c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…9e3ebacked Yes | 76c | 22.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199f…1696backed Yes | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…63edbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 31-32°F on December 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or below on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or higher on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 27-28°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 29-30°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 33-34°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.