Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa95270a62e6d056ce7e91a705953d4798a8c1b90f2525a42d1f394d44c197279
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe86c…02c2backed Yes | 1c | 5,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d4…5110backed No | 74c | 3,044$2,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 1,501$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…5879backed Yes | 78c | 1,258$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 22c | 900$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 56c | 717.22$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.49 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 66c | 586.92$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.28 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 41c | 571.31$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.35 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 28c | 437.98$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.41 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 63c | 425.79$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.79 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 50c | 388.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.94 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 62c | 384.35$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 32c | 364.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 22c | 340$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…3574backed Yes | 78c | 309.45$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 7c | 285$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed No | 11c | 276.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.21 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 38c | 269.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.01 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 66c | 254$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.34 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…947cbacked No | 35c | 233.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +597.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 73c | 200$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 75c | 199.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c4…dbb9backed No | 35c | 198$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 170$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 65c | 154.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 19c | 152.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 75c | 139.66$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 44c | 139.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 58c | 117.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes | 65c | 113$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 110.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…6404backed Yes | 30c | 109.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 55c | 106.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 64c | 104$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +458.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 38c | 103.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 68c | 98.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 38c | 89.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…942cbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 70c | 67.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…cc13backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 38c | 58.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5add…10dfbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…89b6backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 49.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…c9d7backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 75c | 34.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 57c | 34.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed Yes | 76c | 33.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49df…d594backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…9182backed Yes | 68c | 30.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…0a68backed Yes | 65c | 21.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or higher on December 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.