Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x014b65a97c899558937c83cf5b1a9da7b39f6867cd2a28145e1d485e574018cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92a5…eb80backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…02c2backed Yes | 1c | 5,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 727$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fed…d914backed Yes | 57c | 620.57$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…885fbacked No | 37c | 586.3$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.76 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e5…e161backed Yes | 2c | 515.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 51c | 466.87$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd6…2d0cbacked Yes | 67c | 434.72$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 50c | 429.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 44c | 317.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.13 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 310$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.27 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 40c | 303.84$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.85 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 299.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.57 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked Yes | 67c | 284.16$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed Yes | 59c | 282.41$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ac…0a7abacked Yes | 75c | 250$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 63c | 210$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 50c | 208.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 181.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 60c | 181.37$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 60c | 181.1$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked Yes | 54c | 173.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…78f8backed Yes | 62c | 168$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 33c | 156.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 68c | 147.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 63c | 141.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…30f9backed Yes | 71c | 139.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 50c | 137.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked Yes | 65c | 133.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037a…95fdbacked Yes | 68c | 130$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 22c | 124.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 123.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked No | 43c | 123$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 121.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49df…d594backed Yes | 63c | 117.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 51c | 112$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…0b2cbacked Yes | 65c | 108.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 39c | 108$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 38c | 100.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 66c | 90.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 69c | 72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 55c | 70.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 60c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…cc30backed No | 35c | 65.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 56c | 57.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 50c | 51.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 50c | 50.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…89b6backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7f64backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 37c | 43.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6a…d37fbacked No | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2c…9708backed No | 37c | 41.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a39…33bfbacked Yes | 68c | 41.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 59c | 41.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 62c | 36.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 37c | 36.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed Yes | 58c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af2…ff54backed Yes | 59c | 35.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed40…d9f6backed Yes | 65c | 34.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…6426backed Yes | 59c | 33.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…8759backed No | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221b…c983backed No | 43c | 31.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe651…4661backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…e04abacked No | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 55c | 29.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…e7babacked No | 44c | 28.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193f…e094backed Yes | 58c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 67c | 19.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1120…31e0backed Yes | 58c | 19.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…1db7backed Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or higher on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.