Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbf07620d17418fc25c47f7f1cdf7ff56149a8e4fefceeb68f12616874960c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 1,672$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,377$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.34 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,295$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec3…c303backed No | 71c | 1,207$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 4c | 910.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 38c | 698$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.46 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fed…d914backed Yes | 45c | 611.14$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked No | 62c | 572.44$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 52c | 556.24$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.9 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 69c | 532.26$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.88 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 39c | 517.59$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.84 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 77c | 451.95$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 65c | 392.1$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.49 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 9c | 368.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 30c | 253$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 249.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 63c | 221.68$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…6f76backed Yes | 47c | 190.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 10c | 180.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 34c | 168.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd6…2d0cbacked Yes | 67c | 161.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 157.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 38c | 150$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…44c9backed No | 73c | 136.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 114.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 109$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 108.74$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…9b17backed Yes | 43c | 99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 37c | 86.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed Yes | 45c | 82.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed No | 74c | 68.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 31c | 61.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 30c | 50.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 24c | 48.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked No | 50c | 42.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 54c | 42.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 66c | 37.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49df…d594backed Yes | 58c | 37.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…eb30backed No | 63c | 34.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…3799backed Yes | 46c | 32.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 30.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or higher on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.