TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$177,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,888 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb93a…bb32backed No0c22,326$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c5…7a13backed No8c6,360$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5291855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes64c5,018$3,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.5935341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7803…15a6backed No35c4,623$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-63.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7a9…5d71backed No6c3,638$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes55c3,568$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.2311839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x502c…c96bbacked No6c3,387$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed No1c3,163$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked No4c3,079$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.111216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-47%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed No34c3,000$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0303727%10 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed Yes71c2,643$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.614151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd053…537ebacked No9c2,540$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No4c2,395$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.238711.5%10 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked No5c2,300$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.53727%10 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0588…9b80backed No9c2,226$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b6…3961backed No10c1,749$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.44736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed No11c1,681$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1552…1234backed Yes48c1,503$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.514920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No13c1,230$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.94117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No7c1,229$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6330837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9df2…d4a9backed No9c1,200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d77…67b5backed No10c1,137$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b89…84ffbacked No3c1,049$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No6c1,046$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ca6…6fa8backed No3c1,018$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.921442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb8b…eb0bbacked No5c1,004$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b92…e122backed No9c1,000$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d4…886ebacked No10c981.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa733…b7dfbacked No10c980.2$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No17c931.75$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.031717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No4c900$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No4c900$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2510%0 W · 51 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1431…a949backed No24c838.24$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.143680.6%29 W · 7 L+10.1wins+0.28per pick53cpaid+55.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No4c820.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9517232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No4c800$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee7…3ec8backed No3c785.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c759.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.685327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c758.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.788510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No21c734.45$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.79115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c702.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.341074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd592…b698backed No4c684.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d6…63a7backed No6c620.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes43c575.06$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.9325311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…532fbacked No9c564.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5c7…a140backed No8c518.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+35%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7370…c1abbacked No6c495.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes44c480.88$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.0411225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No69c475.28$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.758660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No3c467.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.441302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e47…a510backed No26c463.36$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No74c419.57$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.329257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49bd…82bebacked No4c410.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No8c409.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.091039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No27c400$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No22c395.23$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d3c…e797backed No78c376.65$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No29c368.33$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8215855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x168e…f134backed No5c361.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.921040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbba8…f383backed No3c339.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-70.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes54c334.42$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7429416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xa872…9fe4backed No22c325$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.25560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+135.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf27f…61dabacked No3c324.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc8…8f53backed No38c319.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c317.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.126318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa06c…7d5ebacked No3c316.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x440a…f824backed No10c307.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb62d…d7c5backed No3c300.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e58…4668backed No19c300$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+300%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7358…fb4bbacked No7c293.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e2…92b9backed No6c273.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7da…ebb4backed No7c252.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26c…c307backed No16c249.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088c…1590backed No7c238.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2566…2f38backed No9c228.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d9…f0b6backed No7c221.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No77c218.7$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.42272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed No35c214.63$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.122850%14 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ec…57d5backed No52c206.02$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.772152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0f…5441backed No5c203.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes18c200$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1648639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7232…ebd9backed No10c198.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2da…74e3backed Yes65c196.14$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.826640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9985…6afabacked No6c189.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bec…c6d9backed No35c187.06$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.752147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc59f…59abbacked No38c185.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ec4…6e26backed No10c182.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0991…e29abacked Yes33c177.82$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.582623.1%6 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b7…0b0dbacked No39c175.23$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.17638.2%29 W · 47 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a97…2247backed No11c170.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc4…e1d8backed No21c168.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.311963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes36c156.47$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6111645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85fe…51ffbacked No33c150$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No9c136.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.646357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No8c135.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-63.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc7…e039backed Yes35c123.54$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.541361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed Yes49c122.96$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.325563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…6fcbbacked No68c118.54$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.541533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4e…9e0bbacked No33c118.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.251030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1114147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.