Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29326c15214e5c9a9d848299e809b50bbe4819d6d168aa6ba4811f41776cf350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 20c | 2,170$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 15c | 1,802$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,465$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,449$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,190$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 75c | 935.3$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.3 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 12c | 867.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 3c | 849.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 3c | 793.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 73c | 669.5$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.13 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 79c | 544.72$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 38c | 529.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 5c | 473.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 37c | 405.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 3c | 404.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 19c | 395.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 381.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…52efbacked Yes | 17c | 289.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 62c | 255$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 79c | 220.93$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 9c | 196.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 7c | 141.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 65c | 127.49$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 79c | 114.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 110.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 63c | 108.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 27c | 76.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…02b8backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 75c | 46.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bb…d87cbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by February 28?this page
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.