TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Sviato-Pokrovske by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No8c3,786$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.4125311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes78c2,543$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.181040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed Yes65c1,754$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.582850%14 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No11c1,573$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6623435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No3c1,400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428711.5%10 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d6…9357backed Yes71c1,237$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.381957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd937…cb9abacked No22c1,183$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf0…da21backed No32c1,036$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.881457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x896f…b561backed No21c1,005$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2103839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No11c999.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11014750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes71c999.97$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.9911050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…5635backed No1c993.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.06850%4 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+55.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed Yes72c974.07$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.077360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No11c902.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003560%21 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No22c900$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2424258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes67c900$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.081030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-58.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x88ae…e412backed No39c873.22$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.493268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cc9…9921backed No1c869.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed No29c853.77$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+194.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No3c800$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6380%0 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e5a…747abacked No27c732.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked No28c700$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No33c592.43$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.514456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bc3…9fc4backed No10c491.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes62c482.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.292653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85fe…51ffbacked No9c481.15$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.951844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7612547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No9c434.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6615855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked No12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482540%10 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d46…c336backed Yes74c392.5$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.631782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+86.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes72c365.43$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.321181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed Yes75c332.9$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Yes68c304.97$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.815461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed Yes73c300.24$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.813461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed No35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No10c275.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.386443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…6999backed No35c259.61$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2110%0 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No24c252.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.491656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab4…a62dbacked No30c251.66$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No25c237.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4617232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes65c234.21$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.214158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebd7…d40bbacked No11c221.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4699…7822backed Yes77c202.27$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.686160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524261.9%26 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+50.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed No7c199.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146431.3%20 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2a…88b8backed No16c191.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.151030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No34c176$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.67843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes57c172$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No31c168$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6541736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No23c157.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7620026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes63c150$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5610625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed No10c141$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502774.1%20 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed No9c134.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.511414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No17c133.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3539429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes65c125$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7515029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes69c120$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0513128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b84…5061backed Yes72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No25c119$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.756647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No22c112.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9917122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4952…44b7backed No17c110.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b04…6632backed Yes70c110$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.61942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed No43c105$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3538…6c69backed Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfff0…54e7backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134240.5%17 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3213622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x426e…acd0backed Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45c4…eee1backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25fb…6734backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No10c99.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.426835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0aea…ee37backed No30c86.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.44158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No24c74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.766030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5a0…727cbacked Yes73c73.42$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf78f…1bf9backed No28c72.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x911b…10eabacked Yes73c68.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.08540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59ba…ee00backed No33c60.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1886…d87fbacked Yes60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed No43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+94%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…e564backed Yes73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes75c55.64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6921426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No39c51.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d8…6082backed No32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+46.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked No43c47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.01560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes63c44.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.561250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306c…3dbabacked Yes66c44.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.844042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdef7…3204backed No26c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6c…59d8backed No32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed No34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23534.3%12 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5fd8…7100backed Yes66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.86442.2%27 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes65c35.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.566050%30 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f4…42b8backed Yes72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2839…52f0backed Yes69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes75c20.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0213910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc36b…3ecfbacked Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…1893backed Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.45162.7%32 W · 19 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.