Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bbf669eecf7ab6a126f416276f5601a03bea8fbc0bde65c40ae12b5e4e03efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 2c | 2,556$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf40…c76cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,488$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5846…0388backed Yes | 1c | 1,396$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 1,372$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…59c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 15c | 594$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…ab99backed Yes | 18c | 400.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 15c | 321$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 12c | 273.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed Yes | 10c | 223$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…b525backed Yes | 10c | 220.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…7040backed Yes | 14c | 183.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 12c | 167.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 15c | 162$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 12c | 160.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 107.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed Yes | 22c | 105.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…8f1ebacked Yes | 21c | 105.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 14c | 95.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 15c | 93.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…52eebacked Yes | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3c…b9b5backed Yes | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…34d9backed Yes | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds?this page
- Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 15 seconds or longer?No won
- Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 2–6 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds?Yes won
- Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last less than 2 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands?No won
- Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together, without a clear handshake?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.