Movies · resolved market
Will Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x070e28e39bca76143e1686fe20170b5ee74d63e6910aa1f1da53226ea7007173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fce…b30dbacked No | 23c | 3,281$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 78c | 3,174$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.22 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 19c | 1,056$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 25c | 868$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 79c | 766.11$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 80c | 764$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed No | 16c | 761.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 20c | 694.07$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.61 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 75c | 681$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.25 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 79c | 582.03$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed No | 19c | 554$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 18c | 439.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 12c | 398$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 368.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 13c | 362$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 19c | 354$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 79c | 353$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed No | 17c | 328$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 19c | 295.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…f8c8backed No | 26c | 290.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 73c | 290$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 18c | 279$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked No | 19c | 259$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…c6d4backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed No | 19c | 249.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…00cdbacked No | 22c | 245$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 19c | 235$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 75c | 226$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 25c | 226$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked No | 22c | 223.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed Yes | 75c | 214$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 212.59$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 19c | 207$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 20c | 189.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…0c67backed Yes | 80c | 187.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 79c | 183$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 18c | 183$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…f786backed No | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 20c | 171$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 17c | 158$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 78c | 148$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked Yes | 79c | 146.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…c2c6backed No | 21c | 134$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 80c | 129.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 19c | 117$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 19c | 109.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 107.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 25c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…6275backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 99.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 21c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 92.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…1da9backed Yes | 79c | 76.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 19c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 78c | 67.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 19c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…4839backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed No | 26c | 57.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 37c | 43.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 75c | 33.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 77c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 77cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…3ab7backed Yes | 80c | 22.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…a343backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Britt Lower (Severance) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Kathy Bates (Matlock) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Keri Russell (The Diplomat) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.