TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Trevor Lawrence be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,265
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,265 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab78…fac0backed Yes1c18,060$160 inLost-$159.87422.4%1 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-95.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,153$62 inLost-$62.355679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes8c2,253$188 inLost-$188.3820238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes2c1,800$42 inLost-$41.680%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes6c1,643$106 inLost-$105.9164747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes2c1,589$34 inLost-$33.511735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick23cpaid-6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7134…8febbacked Yes3c1,514$53 inLost-$52.68120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x760b…25bbbacked Yes2c1,097$25 inLost-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1720…2e74backed Yes3c1,035$27 inLost-$27.411154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes3c1,008$31 inLost-$31.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-55.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3795…6942backed Yes2c837.96$17 inLost-$17.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes3c532.96$15 inLost-$15.431118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes8c499.98$41 inLost-$4121227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c475.84$27 inLost-$26.847910.1%8 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes11c449.15$48 inLost-$48.229439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes3c406.6$11 inLost-$11.453923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes3c342.82$12 inLost-$11.555824.1%14 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes6c247.21$16 inLost-$15.898535.3%30 W · 55 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes9c214.93$20 inLost-$2018629.6%55 W · 131 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes7c213.07$15 inLost-$154533.3%15 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x022a…df5ebacked Yes11c182.34$20 inLost-$2018843.1%81 W · 107 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.