NFL · resolved market

Will Christian McCaffrey be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178c83da4be494c2b0e074c2d4c7272e4cd4dea26619797c63521f001455188c

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $68,527
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $65,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,527 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	1c	7,664$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.6	567	9.9%56 W · 511 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf98…0554backed No	13c	7,459$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$937.89	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e33…1482backed Yes	55c	2,021$1,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$919.32	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+4.4wins	+0.34per pick	43cpaid	+61.7%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x933e…0c93backed No	7c	1,863$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.21	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked No	8c	1,266$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.56	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	15c	690.01$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.1	90	45.6%41 W · 49 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2873…7af4backed No	15c	514.87$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.87	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-53%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fce…2506backed No	10c	460.13$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.74	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-85%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	4c	450.06$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	230	24.3%56 W · 174 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No	8c	406.59$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.93	107	31.8%34 W · 73 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-44%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	7c	370$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.21	69	49.3%34 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No	9c	290.85$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.58	342	47.4%162 W · 180 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No	7c	277.04$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-67%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No	41c	271.84$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.72	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	-7.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed No	4c	254.59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-43%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	16c	244.59$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.27	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	78c	238$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.36	118	37.3%44 W · 74 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	6c	227$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a7f…959cbacked No	8c	191.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8109…2153backed No	8c	187.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No	14c	117.64$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.21	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	15c	117.34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.03	368	26.9%99 W · 269 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	10c	104.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	415	40.2%167 W · 248 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa518…41e3backed No	75c	101$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.75	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	70cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes	25c	101$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.75	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-2.7wins	-0.15per pick	26cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1387…fcadbacked Yes	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-38%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No	59c	52$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.76	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d3…a77bbacked No	52c	38.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	64cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No	49c	38.24$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.74	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes	48c	33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.16	323	47.4%153 W · 170 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	45c	32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	488	47.5%232 W · 256 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Christian McCaffrey be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event