NFL · resolved market

Will Abdul Carter be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf79830a303517f11e20ea927a45b6e25d2c9bd4e04e2e9a83d6fb0215f6c1f

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $119,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $87,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,499 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0fce…2506backed Yes	2c	12,104$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.13	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-85%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4805…b807backed Yes	0c	10,560$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9917…837bbacked Yes	1c	10,560$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes	1c	5,169$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.69	42	2.4%1 W · 41 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	8cpaid	-95.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	3,859$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	61	1.6%1 W · 60 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-95.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,799$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.57	567	9.9%56 W · 511 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7134…8febbacked Yes	1c	3,424$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.07	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Yes	1c	2,872$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.83	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x274b…61e6backed Yes	1c	2,727$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.33	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5960…7caabacked Yes	6c	1,825$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.75	20	5%1 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed No	68c	1,476$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$475.93	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	3c	1,450$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.35	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes	32c	1,209$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.73	224	34.4%77 W · 147 L	+8.4wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes	32c	896.84$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.04	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes	31c	744.49$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.15	186	29.6%55 W · 131 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	67c	644.21$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.65	415	40.2%167 W · 248 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No	69c	364.5$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.62	283	37.8%107 W · 176 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aad…18f4backed Yes	38c	269.47$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.09	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	-6.3wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	29c	210$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.9	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	72c	200$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.05	212	27.8%59 W · 153 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes	30c	199$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.18	202	38.6%78 W · 124 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	71c	184.49$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.35	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc378…e4a8backed Yes	8c	149$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x736c…7470backed Yes	32c	123.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa518…41e3backed No	75c	101$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.46	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	70cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0a4…ca01backed Yes	26c	100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9363…fbfabacked Yes	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes	25c	80.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-2.7wins	-0.15per pick	26cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No	69c	80$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.8	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	35c	68.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.14	184	27.7%51 W · 133 L	-18.4wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	68c	62.5$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	528	28.6%151 W · 377 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8f1…8691backed Yes	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No	66c	60$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.2	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	68c	60$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ce7…e2f3backed Yes	30c	52.76$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-35%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	34c	37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	-10.4wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes	30c	35.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	-7.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd01e…a8cabacked Yes	32c	34.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2cb…ac5abacked Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	34c	30.47$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	59	30.5%18 W · 41 L	+4.7wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Abdul Carter be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event