Macro Indicators · resolved market
Negative GDP growth in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b40914f66cf5195d84f5934b3c297919342ebb3c032fabb709b7d87ae67e14e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 15,267$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc111…7522backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 14c | 6,881$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 5,533$4,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.74 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4750…0412backed Yes | 1c | 5,520$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…874bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,462$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 48c | 4,960$2,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,572.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 2c | 4,425$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,714$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 42c | 3,032$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.42 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…4fb1backed Yes | 1c | 2,928$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 19c | 2,812$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 53c | 2,711$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked Yes | 1c | 2,353$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 2,140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…2ea7backed Yes | 1c | 1,914$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…231dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,678$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 49c | 1,504$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,408$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…245dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,405$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 4c | 1,350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…30bebacked Yes | 47c | 1,264$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,225$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 34c | 1,171$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 50c | 1,111$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…5482backed Yes | 1c | 1,066$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed Yes | 48c | 1,050$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 42c | 1,040$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 50c | 939.45$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.03 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 69c | 838.31$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 56c | 719.18$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…11aebacked Yes | 3c | 700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 3c | 700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabb…2d41backed Yes | 2c | 676.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed Yes | 5c | 620$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 50c | 600$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.16 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 3c | 550$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 3c | 550$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…eaa7backed No | 48c | 525.42$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 3c | 525$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…71b7backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c55…e0f8backed No | 64c | 496.48$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 4c | 480$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 67c | 460.62$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes | 3c | 450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 3c | 450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…8deebacked Yes | 3c | 450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 10c | 433.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 50c | 414.96$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…49f9backed Yes | 5c | 414.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 45c | 400.2$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 43c | 400$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…e0ebbacked No | 53c | 377.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 45c | 367$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.68 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…d977backed Yes | 30c | 337.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9dd0backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…4c9fbacked Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 29c | 280.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 28c | 230$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…9925backed No | 75c | 218.91$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 77c | 215.02$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 27c | 209.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2cf0backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 42c | 205.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7cccbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…b96ebacked No | 51c | 197.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 175.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 169.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…dc3cbacked Yes | 55c | 147.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 69c | 140.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 46c | 138.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked No | 76c | 127.15$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 23c | 121.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…b959backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd811…8d43backed Yes | 25c | 80.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc72…6fc1backed Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 50c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 61c | 65.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…7cffbacked No | 45c | 57.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 22c | 52.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…c839backed No | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.