Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump cut aid to Jordan or Egypt before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98b6f6cb0664e708df985fe93bda5898930a2be1c1b27349e588b2ac8a188232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20e8…b663backed Yes | 0c | 63,313$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,048$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.03 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,297$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb799…c753backed Yes | 3c | 1,144$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 797.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 2c | 788.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 63c | 785.67$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.24 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 12c | 681.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 71c | 587.34$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09cd…e9a7backed Yes | 30c | 569.19$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 35c | 556.72$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 24c | 448.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…c510backed Yes | 6c | 383.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…e40dbacked Yes | 5c | 346.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 12c | 329.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…e73abacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 299.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 74c | 261.11$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 71c | 254.7$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 213.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 74c | 202.62$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed No | 69c | 195.58$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 18c | 195.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked Yes | 17c | 184.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d50…1160backed Yes | 29c | 180$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 22c | 164.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…fa79backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 76c | 121$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 26c | 112.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed No | 68c | 107$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 21c | 99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 69c | 52.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 74c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.