Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b9fe809c01ecd05e9a5c677a013abadf77016584864ac69e3d52d4d488f8d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x059b…b926backed No | 59c | 3,211$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 40c | 1,091$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.99 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 811.51$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.18 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 75c | 454.36$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes | 52c | 376.29$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…9ff1backed No | 33c | 372.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 32c | 319.19$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…27c9backed Yes | 41c | 216.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 42c | 189$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.72 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 44c | 184.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 151.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…b357backed No | 67c | 149.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed No | 56c | 148.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked No | 63c | 135.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed No | 65c | 123.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 35c | 103.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x580e…a1c4backed No | 58c | 97.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 80.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 40c | 73.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…04acbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked Yes | 60c | 64.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…cc55backed Yes | 40c | 48.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 46.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 60c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 61c | 41.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…f15ebacked No | 57c | 40.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed Yes | 31c | 40.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 43c | 38.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…95debacked Yes | 46c | 33.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 61c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…bbfbbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China in April?this page
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Bangladesh in April?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Cambodia in April?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on European Union in April?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on India in April?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Japan in April?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Korea in April?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Taiwan in April?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Vietnam in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.