Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dc26b4c0557a831d83cb9f192c7fd92a33a07148a4576195d96d3b7acbd318d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 35c | 5,077$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,784.91 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 30c | 2,415$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.94 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 2,206$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.64 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 30c | 1,862$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.71 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 23c | 1,263$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.62 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 62c | 1,027$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.43 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…37b1backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…0e74backed No | 67c | 773.17$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Yes | 24c | 696.02$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 62c | 689.09$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.28 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 38c | 679.99$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 24c | 620.34$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.92 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…ec85backed Yes | 29c | 610$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…5353backed No | 69c | 560$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebf…a807backed Yes | 31c | 560$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 69c | 533$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.88 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 33c | 509.41$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8c…a4ecbacked Yes | 29c | 375$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…2a82backed Yes | 32c | 304.69$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 300$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 68c | 291.31$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 63c | 261.91$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 37c | 203.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…d2f8backed Yes | 36c | 195.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 34c | 150.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed No | 68c | 142$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 71c | 132$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 130.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 68c | 124$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 32c | 105.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 42c | 104.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 104$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…9015backed Yes | 35c | 98.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes | 33c | 94.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…912fbacked Yes | 31c | 90.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 34c | 72.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…14a8backed Yes | 31c | 71.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 33c | 66.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…1904backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 43c | 62.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 78c | 61.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…2bd4backed No | 71c | 60.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…1617backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 66c | 44.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…d87dbacked No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 57c | 36.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…c207backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…e638backed Yes | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…bc27backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?this page
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Yes won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.1%?No won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.