Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd079e212d412aba9cb264874514b5de9821fbb7c9ed1df22fef9894a9774212f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35e9…4ebbbacked Yes | 34c | 28,533$9,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,831.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…a8c3backed No | 66c | 28,533$18,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,831.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 39c | 13,765$5,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,447.23 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 64c | 4,540$2,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,919.83 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 4,116$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 31c | 2,681$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.25 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 2,346$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.97 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 34c | 1,944$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.11 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…ea08backed Yes | 30c | 880$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…dcb2backed No | 70c | 880$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 35c | 650$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 34c | 620.01$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.11 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 610.29$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.43 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 29c | 564.07$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.28 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 62c | 546$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.56 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 29c | 435.58$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.01 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 61c | 352.04$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.56 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 29c | 330.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 55c | 310$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 35c | 263.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.27 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 35c | 247.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 208.1$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 25c | 189.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.73 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 177.42$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 29c | 172$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 63c | 147.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…0e74backed No | 55c | 126$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 32c | 103.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…9015backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 46c | 92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…14a8backed Yes | 30c | 66.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 76c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 48c | 64.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…581bbacked Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…2bd4backed No | 72c | 58.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 47c | 57.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…418cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…d435backed Yes | 30c | 53.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 41c | 41.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5b…ad57backed No | 67c | 40.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…9a61backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Yes | 57c | 34.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6eb…e6a8backed No | 72c | 31.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb649…2b5cbacked No | 71c | 22.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…d3c7backed No | 71c | 15.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf1…167ebacked No | 65c | 15.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0d…4713backed No | 72c | 14.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?this page
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.1%?No won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.