Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x258b33c98865de3844d46b2b1a2b3c860c786de7bc12dfd075eef598e252107a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 10c | 3,695$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.91 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 16c | 1,977$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.72 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 13c | 1,257$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 13c | 920$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 14c | 707.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 12c | 608.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 13c | 321.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 296.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 7c | 261$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 9c | 238.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 222.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 16c | 198.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…1904backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 14c | 141.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 97.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…14a8backed Yes | 14c | 81.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?this page
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Yes won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.1%?No won
- Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.