TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,938,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,876,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,938,735 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes1c341,783$3,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,676.824522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed Yes0c107,600$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-59.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3979…f49ebacked Yes1c100,110$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.1190%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57dc…a126backed Yes1c65,005$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.1470%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c41,711$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.311612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x995d…bd40backed Yes1c29,287$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.79837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c2d…b15ebacked Yes0c26,940$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7823…78d7backed Yes0c24,950$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a49…667ebacked Yes0c22,780$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes4c22,277$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.773859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes1c21,068$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.672321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa22…c275backed Yes0c20,062$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6fc…c98fbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes1c14,379$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.812524%6 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid-34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No2c13,444$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,232.049746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes1c12,163$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d1…05a0backed Yes0c11,667$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-77.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa659…db4cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x620e…c134backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes1c9,305$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.221414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes0c7,755$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.242015%3 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed Yes3c7,626$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.655147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ea…f801backed Yes0c7,004$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.02728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc212…a125backed Yes74c6,753$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,017.312552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No73c5,634$4,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.574057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No1c5,365$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,295.3614742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d2…8f47backed Yes1c5,334$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-62.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes5c5,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93b…bb37backed Yes1c4,455$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f7…4b56backed Yes0c4,304$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74b5…e2ffbacked No57c2,910$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.943151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes6c2,150$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1199958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe006…7ee1backed Yes1c2,143$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Yes77c1,701$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.832360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74da…1ba5backed No20c1,690$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.81741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b2a…25d5backed No42c1,603$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.341010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-76.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x91a4…7547backed Yes1c1,595$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-57.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65bd…efa7backed Yes1c1,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b2…ffd0backed Yes3c1,403$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4970%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d01…d54bbacked Yes1c1,306$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No49c1,196$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.466229%18 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11ef…8ae8backed Yes24c1,056$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.48812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes73c925$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.288143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No75c917.99$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.698646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No51c899.74$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.5815032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No22c710$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.86728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x092f…18acbacked Yes3c705.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.83229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No23c700$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53916144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bda…5e13backed No2c600$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+634.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed No29c571.45$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.221952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d5a…917ebacked No67c554.13$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.141717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc89d…f5adbacked Yes62c549.94$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No29c518.35$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.1315155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153b…68ddbacked No5c500$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4752133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+93%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes27c396.92$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.923318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed Yes10c387.07$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.984346.5%20 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6426…bb53backed Yes79c386.3$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.91837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked No49c383.79$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.713432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes4c350$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.083441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0e…8c33backed Yes77c273.55$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.63911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.36per pick47cpaid-81.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes41c270$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.984235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes37c236.95$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1948…f9bbbacked Yes55c228$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe424…0d1abacked No22c208.45$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.592352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed Yes10c196.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No30c178.57$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12514843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No74c158.74$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.213818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No47c157.36$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed Yes70c150$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4392…68c3backed No71c148.8$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.99988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes79c141.67$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.342850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2468…5a76backed Yes9c136$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…7d80backed No23c130.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.43728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc695…c8b9backed Yes13c129$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c53…7995backed Yes8c125$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8786…f1aabacked Yes72c101.33$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d7bfbacked Yes10c101$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x22f4…3a5bbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed No21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.033625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcef…912abacked Yes19c91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89a2…6c31backed Yes19c91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be8…e00abacked No63c71.37$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes15c68.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2819436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3914…51d7backed Yes66c53.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.182462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a67…a78ebacked No20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404037.5%15 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes75c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2513145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes70c44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.88843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92e4…054fbacked Yes79c32.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea5c…096abacked Yes80c31.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes45c25.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.411,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1374…3e56backed Yes79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes77c25.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4517238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x304a…eacfbacked No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.162646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29be…c89ebacked Yes77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754e…e92abacked Yes67c17.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.66560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.