Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630d186f7d00ec7a3814183b29ef01526c4fc6142cc86841bd6ec2bb377b3b02

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 15, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $170,343
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,343 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	38,882$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.98	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	29,388$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.01	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe09a…d020backed Yes	4c	7,204$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed No	76c	5,469$4,180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,289.4	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	3c	5,305$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.12	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	5,106$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.14	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	6c	3,998$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.61	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	15c	2,839$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.27	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xede0…9117backed Yes	4c	2,797$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,676$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.46	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	3c	2,508$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.9	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	23c	2,500$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	15c	2,281$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.47	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	2,085$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.95	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8970…14d0backed Yes	1c	1,679$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	24c	1,637$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xab60…9c10backed Yes	1c	1,479$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	18c	1,363$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.28	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4d…7fe8backed Yes	29c	1,035$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes	18c	999.98$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x329b…2d4fbacked Yes	14c	731.34$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	21c	685.61$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.37	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	24c	665.21$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	22c	586.35$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	20c	562$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.54	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	22c	409.09$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes	10c	408.41$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.77	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb288…abbbbacked Yes	24c	406.68$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	20c	403.33$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.67	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69e1…f3fdbacked Yes	24c	380.71$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.37	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-22%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	326.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a12…c455backed Yes	9c	303.33$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	22c	300$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	15c	300$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	10c	298.01$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.42	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da6…c247backed Yes	10c	257.3$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.31	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	15c	255.65$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.37	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	19c	246.01$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.62	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9910…f830backed Yes	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes	25c	196$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	17c	171.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db5…d5a6backed Yes	7c	160$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	11c	151.01$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed No	64c	143.12$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.91	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc70…3ebcbacked Yes	15c	141.21$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x649c…e02dbacked Yes	22c	136.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a14…07b5backed Yes	18c	135.17$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5649…0597backed Yes	9c	133.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No	79c	120$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6030…6f2ebacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+75%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes	22c	115$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	12	25%3 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	21c	100.36$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9730…4504backed Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	24c	97.54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.23	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7226…f753backed Yes	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab6…f344backed Yes	23c	69.64$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5d9…4c05backed Yes	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x243f…5a02backed No	78c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.3	37	70.3%26 W · 11 L	+4.7wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event