Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bcea01e59b19c98261fbbfb2cd2b1643a6a53a6ab71a4ae8c6a2d5c8df84001

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 14, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $114,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,883 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	36,171$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.05	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	22,350$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.3	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	1c	4,147$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.91	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	19c	2,763$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.54	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	4c	2,209$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.4	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8844…d082backed Yes	2c	2,169$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe09a…d020backed Yes	3c	2,148$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	2c	2,100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes	21c	1,554$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	1,500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.58	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	1,300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	1,290$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.87	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	1,249$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	1,216$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.88	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	1,086$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.33	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	5c	1,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	16c	958.72$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	17c	915.98$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.72	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	13c	898.89$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.55	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	2c	885.23$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	5c	607.29$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.48	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	20c	503.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6999…ca8fbacked Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	21c	486.26$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	12c	422.22$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40af…d8eebacked Yes	4c	307.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a12…c455backed Yes	7c	305$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.35	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	9c	300$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	5c	265$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x329b…2d4fbacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.45	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5649…0597backed Yes	8c	177.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6030…6f2ebacked Yes	13c	117.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+75%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	16c	117.08$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.21	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9730…4504backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	13c	81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab6…f344backed Yes	23c	47.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf737…9f0dbacked No	77c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event