Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f5978c2cd3290fe50d8175a3a66658b7ff0dc9822839cf09d89aeefd1738d57

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 16, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $107,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,601

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,372 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	15,590$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.15	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	3c	7,807$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.14	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	1c	7,409$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.79	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	5,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	2c	4,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,160$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.26	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	2c	2,773$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	3c	2,662$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.56	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,337$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.74	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	2,232$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.79	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffd…e8a1backed Yes	1c	1,833$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	3c	1,737$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,264$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.82	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	3c	782.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	531.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.82	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	3c	457.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	5c	320.84$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.14	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea0…a84bbacked Yes	4c	282.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.43	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	7c	249$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.57	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	5c	228.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0223…34d1backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event