Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x786ae71c554140ce9e99015a46ab62d1526f432a7aecc4be684025400802b7d2

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 16, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $99,304
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,304 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	5c	8,775$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.99	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	12c	4,669$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.24	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	13c	4,186$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.84	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	15c	4,001$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.42	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,720$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	6c	2,718$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.75	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	15c	2,321$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.82	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	15c	2,110$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	2,101$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.4	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	4c	1,801$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.66	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	1,667$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.44	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe09a…d020backed Yes	18c	1,423$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.11	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	1c	1,390$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	10c	1,026$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.6	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	11c	1,005$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	20c	1,000$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.57	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	17c	759.55$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.55	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	19c	746.22$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.13	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4d…7fe8backed Yes	37c	741.5$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	22c	718.67$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.58	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes	6c	707.69$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes	22c	697.41$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.48	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	12c	680.43$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.41	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	16c	662.83$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.94	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	14c	616.51$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.68	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	10c	595$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.09	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	25c	573.81$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.9	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes	18c	548.75$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	15c	529.13$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.37	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	19c	486.31$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.3	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	9c	459$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.82	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	20c	450$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	20c	407.12$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.83	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e1…f3fdbacked Yes	25c	404.48$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-22%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	9c	400$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	11c	399.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	20c	354.03$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.32	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	12c	350$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	35c	342.76$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.4	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	24c	300$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes	11c	300$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6552…cca9backed Yes	17c	284.84$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da6…c247backed Yes	9c	275.8$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c0…e3cfbacked Yes	7c	247.35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8d…23acbacked Yes	13c	229.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	73c	226.54$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.76	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes	14c	226$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.64	46	37%17 W · 29 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8970…14d0backed Yes	14c	213.66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	18c	205.88$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	16c	200$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	16c	199.27$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes	16c	196.19$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.65	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc65…29b4backed Yes	17c	181.29$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4265…1cc3backed Yes	18c	165$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	13c	155.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.34	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	19c	155.01$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.07	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes	33c	150.73$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	13c	150.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes	32c	150$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	12	25%3 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	19c	149.45$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.09	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a69…228fbacked No	68c	145.36$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.36	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	77c	144.98$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.35	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc70…3ebcbacked Yes	16c	141.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	130$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e2…998abacked Yes	32c	125.45$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x243f…5a02backed No	67c	125$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.8	37	70.3%26 W · 11 L	+4.7wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	18c	118.18$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0100…c58abacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5649…0597backed Yes	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x752a…282fbacked Yes	16c	113.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddca…239abacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9910…f830backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes	17c	94.12$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	126	20.6%26 W · 100 L	-7.4wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x845e…9401backed Yes	20c	80$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab6…f344backed Yes	23c	77.21$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca40…2a3bbacked Yes	35c	55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x701d…1728backed Yes	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed No	60c	44.99$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No	73c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.04	235	41.3%97 W · 138 L	-29.2wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0658…ff9cbacked Yes	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event