Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29932881f1b4915f204bd5f65de9b206b53af75af7624bc25c34d9da02bbb113

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 16, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $114,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,204 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	17,475$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.32	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	5c	4,300$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.2	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	5c	4,082$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.79	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	3,853$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	3,785$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.86	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,760$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.99	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	3c	3,603$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.97	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	1c	3,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	5c	2,425$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.35	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	2,300$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	3c	2,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.8	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	1,909$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.56	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	4c	1,461$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.54	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	5c	1,460$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	2c	1,298$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.34	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	6c	854.53$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.22	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8140…626fbacked Yes	3c	792.69$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.61	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+121.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	20c	792.04$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.45	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	7c	689.09$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.65	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	4c	626.13$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.16	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-12.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	7c	598.78$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffd…e8a1backed Yes	3c	535.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	14c	499.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	10c	370$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.12	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5377…1a7dbacked Yes	12c	240$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…ca14backed Yes	8c	203.17$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+6.2wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	14c	144.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5649…0597backed Yes	14c	106.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes	17c	101.24$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6a…cdcfbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfec…9cccbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event