Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19d0ec4ea6a369438636ee6b30d065bd5b8cc57fe9849037ab53ca548cb49774

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 16, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $140,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,379

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,457 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	37,890$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.68	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	9c	4,700$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	20c	4,149$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.7	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	14c	3,913$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.14	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	3,225$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.65	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	10c	2,392$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.08	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes	4c	2,000$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	19c	1,900$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	10c	1,550$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	15c	1,513$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.56	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	15c	1,450$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.06	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4265…1cc3backed Yes	17c	1,410$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.55	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	1,214$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.27	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked Yes	2c	1,153$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	13c	1,150$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.5	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	23c	1,001$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.13	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	16c	1,000$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.5	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	6c	1,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	7c	797.02$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.58	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	14c	745.02$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.42	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4d…7fe8backed Yes	30c	740.68$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes	35c	725.72$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes	11c	656.61$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.16	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	29c	644.97$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.94	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe77b…68e2backed Yes	25c	600$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	13c	540.81$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	535.66$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.96	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	19c	520$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.48	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	29c	501.38$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.18	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	11c	486.16$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.2	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb288…abbbbacked Yes	31c	484.39$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	7c	460.49$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.69	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes	24c	420$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	9c	415.64$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.22	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	9c	371.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.07	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	29c	361.13$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.85	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	21c	324.34$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes	32c	311.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	303.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	28c	302.6$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.92	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c0…e3cfbacked Yes	10c	301.13$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.45	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	26c	300$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5649…0597backed Yes	33c	289.08$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.02	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes	13c	287.48$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	16c	286.15$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.36	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	6c	275$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes	21c	256.39$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.76	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	28c	250$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.55	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes	41c	243.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	220$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes	15c	200.88$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.44	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	16c	200.63$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.06	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a12…c455backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	8c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	11c	187.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	28c	185.42$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.6	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	28c	178.85$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	23c	170$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.41	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	14c	164.87$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.29	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes	15c	151.65$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.17	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	22c	150$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddb4…3a48backed Yes	10c	144.89$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-67%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78e…202ebacked Yes	14c	141.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	18c	130.48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.62	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-12.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	19c	120.79$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes	27c	120$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	94	11.7%11 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	16c	114.22$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	35c	113.01$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0223…34d1backed Yes	10c	112$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd712…228dbacked Yes	18c	101.75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c83…13e3backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b58…53fdbacked Yes	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.9	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6a…cdcfbacked Yes	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9944…b035backed Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes	21c	95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.37	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	14c	94.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd78c…ca14backed Yes	16c	86.16$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+6.2wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	31c	81.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	20c	80.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	797	35.9%286 W · 511 L	-34.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf667…4411backed Yes	45c	62.71$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd3…a797backed Yes	32c	62.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5067…6d69backed Yes	27c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.45	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02d6…796dbacked Yes	32c	48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45a1…d54abacked No	68c	29.59$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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