Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2146b1fe58e0a8d267617525f1423d5fa6454771d45f29efbb7eda116ad3d43

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 14, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $89,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $53,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,233 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	30,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	10,300$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	3,705$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.26	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,131$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.25	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	5c	2,000$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c68…87abbacked Yes	4c	1,552$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	1c	1,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	1,500$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	5c	1,077$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.65	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	6c	1,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.15	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	914.86$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.84	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	6c	851.89$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.45	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	742.04$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.86	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	10c	740.6$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.06	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	9c	663.87$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.02	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	628$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	13c	562.04$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	6c	500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	493.31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.79	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	4c	364$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a12…c455backed Yes	7c	305.63$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	8c	236.58$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	6c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes	7c	155$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	10c	135$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event