TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$351,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$125,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,641 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c31,771$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.77780%0 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30838.4%7 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes0c23,748$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7562713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c18,573$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.252,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c11,840$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.724524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes0c11,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c6,081$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.395535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c5,760$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.921863.8%7 W · 179 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c5,681$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.442785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes4c5,041$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.671,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes2c4,083$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.96953.2%3 W · 92 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes2c3,825$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7888610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c3,597$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.362,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c3,481$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes0c3,449$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36365.6%2 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes4c3,096$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.71066.6%7 W · 99 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6025413.4%34 W · 220 L-0.6wins0.00per pick14cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes2c2,630$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.355827.6%16 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes11c2,442$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.87413.5%10 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick14cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes7c2,387$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0956429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes2c2,305$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7882714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes8c2,216$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.769416%15 W · 79 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.045718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes1c1,764$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.162259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8966…3476backed Yes1c1,751$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7220%0 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes9c1,670$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8514913.4%20 W · 129 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes5c1,460$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.971557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes3c1,338$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.951,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes8c1,310$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c1,206$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.86915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes4c1,083$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.871515.3%8 W · 143 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+227.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes6c1,037$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.631,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes7c1,022$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.766630.3%20 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c1,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.24916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes3c949.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5718.5%6 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes12c789.34$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8614022.1%31 W · 109 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes8c764.2$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.212614.3%18 W · 108 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ec…e25abacked Yes12c758.88$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.352321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes8c739.92$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5931624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes4c697.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9632917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes7c683.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50947.4%7 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes6c666.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3940719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes4c648.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9778111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes8c600$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.550913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0b…4d2fbacked Yes9c583.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes5c583.61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7519314%27 W · 166 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes8c583.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0812919.4%25 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes6c577$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.626347.6%30 W · 33 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes7c573.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3736018.9%68 W · 292 L-1.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes7c573.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409213%12 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes7c567.29$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.351,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…5258backed Yes7c545.59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ee7…fb27backed Yes10c520.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506323.8%15 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes5c500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.220723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16575.3%3 W · 54 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+14.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes8c499.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4041610.6%44 W · 372 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes5c480.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.36603.3%2 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes7c450$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes3c420$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.681,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…4132backed Yes8c414.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.424812.5%6 W · 42 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes6c408.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7718726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes7c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.613119.8%26 W · 105 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes6c399.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2373215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes4c389.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1979811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89f8…6c44backed Yes8c321.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.993321.2%7 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes8c320.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4315918.9%30 W · 129 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes8c308.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5721521.9%47 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b2d…4a62backed Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15630.4%17 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271194.2%5 W · 114 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes7c293.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.370616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…5c90backed Yes5c289.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51779.1%7 W · 70 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid+10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes4c278.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.399922.2%22 W · 77 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes11c267.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.373616.7%6 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes9c254.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231008%8 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57f1…078abacked Yes5c251.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.47133.8%24 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes6c250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16819.9%8 W · 73 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes5c240$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes6c226.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4988018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143b…74b5backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.49315.1%14 W · 79 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9140…f62cbacked Yes11c191.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.27825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65fc…beacbacked Yes11c180.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9812416.9%21 W · 103 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x582c…eb16backed Yes8c167.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9811613.8%16 W · 100 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes7c160$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.733116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+68.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes9c126$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3227820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6607…0cccbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes9c117.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes11c112.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5642719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.758011.4%66 W · 514 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x855e…de25backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.281850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f7…00f0backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.