Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa23fd0638e8161b058eb31d6ed89617d7d71066a49214e8f92b21c60d30b08b9

Rebuilt 10 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $433,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $166,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $433,814 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	69,125$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.4	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	46,154$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.5	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	29,120$852 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$851.64	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes	3c	17,467$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.79	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	15,882$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.3	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	0c	11,150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa639…7135backed Yes	3c	6,763$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.09	48	2.1%1 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	7cpaid	-96%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b4…2d43backed Yes	3c	5,928$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.07	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b9e…ae15backed Yes	4c	5,828$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.82	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	4c	5,209$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	8c	5,111$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.54	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	4,664$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.43	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	2c	4,013$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.22	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	4c	3,976$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.2	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,972$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.98	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes	2c	3,311$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.26	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,028$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.53	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x863b…4f2cbacked Yes	2c	3,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.84	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	2c	2,731$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.97	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,725$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.48	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,683$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	4c	2,494$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.34	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	2c	2,410$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.94	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…4132backed Yes	2c	2,227$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	1c	2,218$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	2,134$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.41	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	1c	2,115$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	1,900$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.36	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,847$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.11	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,780$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	1,666$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,665$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.27	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,600$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes	4c	1,557$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.34	93	30.1%28 W · 65 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes	3c	1,539$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.68	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	3c	1,538$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.85	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaed9…f0d7backed Yes	4c	1,351$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	1c	1,157$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.31	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	2c	1,030$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.95	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	1c	1,010$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	4c	1,005$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.85	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	5c	1,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.76	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	4c	1,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.36	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	2c	978.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.35	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	2c	950$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	876.42$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	4c	795.43$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.13	121	14%17 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	765.83$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.66	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	656.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeded…4dcabacked Yes	3c	536.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	3c	518.85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	3c	514.59$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc423…03b9backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9019…232dbacked Yes	3c	499.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.66	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes	4c	448.22$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.22	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	4c	445.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	6c	407.84$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.27	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed Yes	6c	400$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	200	25%50 W · 150 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	364.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.83	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	355.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	333.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	4c	332.41$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x830c…d1fcbacked Yes	4c	309.7$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x299b…8994backed Yes	5c	223.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x636b…615bbacked Yes	9c	164.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.03	167	29.9%50 W · 117 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes	8c	151$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	332	31%103 W · 229 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb3c…4a10backed Yes	7c	150$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa876…9b4abacked Yes	8c	126.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event