Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe71f427eef9b6a76186d19856ea85433c7aea57d3b559eefae48ddc1b0ecafdb

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $179,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $57,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,144 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	21,236$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.83	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	1c	11,111$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.22	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,251$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.44	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	5,220$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	4,638$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.13	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	4,541$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,446$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.95	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	3,600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	3,163$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	1c	3,046$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.52	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	1c	2,857$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	2,598$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,316$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.95	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	2,288$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.84	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b22…2025backed Yes	0c	2,006$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	3c	1,716$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	4c	1,668$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.33	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	3c	1,589$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.11	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fc…d760backed Yes	3c	1,507$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+3.3wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	+57.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	2c	1,083$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.34	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4992…a929backed Yes	1c	999.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	3c	936.65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.57	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb98d…5a68backed Yes	1c	916.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	807.3$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.36	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	787$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	781.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.28	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	1c	774.78$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1299…f6b1backed Yes	2c	688.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	2c	668.79$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	663.39$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	2c	656.17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	3c	625$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	620$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	499.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa639…7135backed Yes	4c	484.93$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	48	2.1%1 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	7cpaid	-96%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes	3c	387.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	3c	312.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event