TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$410,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$237,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $410,473 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b9e…ae15backed Yes0c135,179$171 inLost-$170.562516%4 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes0c36,348$131 inLost-$131.4532615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes0c21,476$41 inLost-$40.986097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa639…7135backed Yes2c12,661$242 inLost-$242.22482.1%1 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-96%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb85f…b9a0backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$10365.6%2 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes0c7,314$34 inLost-$33.576630.3%20 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c5,934$18 inLost-$17.991,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c5,555$11 inLost-$11.112785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes0c5,043$14 inLost-$13.9421222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes0c5,000$18 inLost-$17.582714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes1c4,704$49 inLost-$48.921194.2%5 W · 114 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes2c3,332$50 inLost-$49.982338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c3,243$20 inLost-$20.491,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes1c3,062$29 inLost-$28.7326113.8%36 W · 225 L-0.5wins0.00per pick14cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes1c3,050$30 inLost-$30.291834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost-$159330.1%28 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes1c2,602$18 inLost-$1830110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed Yes1c2,160$15 inLost-$15.1220025%50 W · 150 L+0.8wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b22…2025backed Yes1c1,982$10 inLost-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes1c1,561$12 inLost-$11.7814022.1%31 W · 109 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes1c1,200$12 inLost-$11.81352.9%1 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes3c596.13$20 inLost-$20812.5%2 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-60.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.