Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68c8864b5616c6c516ad044575adc3b74f09fcace1cd9735b3d8be5f663dcd15

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $226,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,155 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	16,823$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	12,245$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	1c	11,111$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.33	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d55…cd90backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	20%10 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	7,498$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes	4c	6,751$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.62	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	4,525$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.62	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	4,320$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	4,225$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.13	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	2c	4,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	3c	2,217$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.72	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	5c	2,110$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.85	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	2,100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	5c	2,007$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.03	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	2,000$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.43	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	3c	1,854$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	1,429$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.77	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,280$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.48	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	1,182$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.66	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	4c	1,126$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	3c	995.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.36	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	2c	949.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	890.23$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	3c	884.88$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.64	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	852.97$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.38	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	845.86$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.74	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	5c	801.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.72	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	6c	800$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	800$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	5c	798$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	4c	781.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	719.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	700$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	4c	680.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.53	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	2c	679.79$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee7…fb27backed Yes	5c	639.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	63	23.8%15 W · 48 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	3c	593.16$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.86	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	4c	539.08$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	3c	528.03$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.34	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	6c	504.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.57	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f92…5c90backed Yes	2c	489.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	77	9.1%7 W · 70 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	4c	416.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.73	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	6c	378.33$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.25	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes	6c	338.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.89	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	5c	309.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0504…3799backed Yes	7c	307.69$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.54	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	4c	275.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x299a…3576backed Yes	5c	220$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x143b…74b5backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event