TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump resign in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$665,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$689,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $665,885 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd4c1…768dbacked Yes6c17,741$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce18…4572backed Yes7c14,426$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79df…0beabacked Yes6c12,687$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c9,242$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.333313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes6c8,227$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c7,599$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.4155618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf193…9838backed Yes7c7,519$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc975…3e6fbacked Yes6c6,799$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.02425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,598$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.731,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6028…10eebacked Yes6c6,338$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef4…6cf4backed Yes4c6,326$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes2c5,705$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.06828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ec…1b38backed Yes5c5,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929e…291abacked Yes5c4,233$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1f…f886backed Yes5c3,938$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes3c3,500$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024318.6%8 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc057…ce21backed Yes6c3,219$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9470%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd04f…9508backed Yes1c3,116$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bea…2ddabacked Yes3c3,051$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.78812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf60…4890backed Yes5c2,565$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes5c2,536$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.41610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes5c2,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc70f…0449backed Yes4c2,484$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe158…9d56backed Yes4c2,233$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes2c2,222$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.447128.2%20 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes3c2,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665010%5 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-82.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x765a…8b6bbacked Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafdc…e9c9backed Yes6c1,769$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca3…cb95backed Yes2c1,737$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.011030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0022…b3b2backed Yes2c1,686$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c9…c458backed Yes6c1,600$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a7…60fcbacked Yes6c1,574$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes4c1,551$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6739522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e1…b0f6backed Yes7c1,504$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a3…8790backed Yes6c1,377$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes1c1,343$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-91.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc99c…f913backed Yes4c1,331$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.98119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes6c1,300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes3c1,286$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad32…e96bbacked Yes7c1,242$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8646…b465backed Yes6c1,231$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes6c1,200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664634.8%16 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes3c1,108$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9114624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7887…87aabacked Yes6c1,017$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11eb…db1fbacked Yes5c1,015$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c1,013$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.623989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c3…2783backed Yes4c1,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b1…e4cfbacked Yes6c874.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f20…33aabacked Yes4c872.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed Yes6c806.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee89…e6a4backed Yes6c790.31$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes4c790.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb4…3a48backed Yes6c781.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6e…6df3backed Yes10c751.49$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9814…9c8ebacked Yes7c746.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd29…51d0backed Yes4c666.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c619.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.081466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes3c610.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7317633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6018…4daabacked Yes4c600$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4fc…42afbacked Yes8c590.38$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57c…fb75backed Yes9c566.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes4c512.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-68.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x612f…aa53backed Yes7c500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba99…2a27backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc489…4ec7backed Yes7c500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd8…538bbacked Yes3c499.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe14…1a10backed Yes6c477.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes5c460.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212516%4 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab4…e700backed Yes5c456.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe995…5891backed Yes7c454.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41cf…a01dbacked Yes6c450.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3358…4092backed Yes4c424.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x052e…b9b7backed Yes10c412.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd6…4ab1backed Yes6c406.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56a1…7b89backed Yes7c378.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…eb98backed Yes7c366.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fa…4ce9backed Yes6c362.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes6c338.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1299…81babacked Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+139%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Yes6c325.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.14728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c5…dd5ebacked Yes4c319.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-76%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…b7a8backed Yes7c303.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04b…8636backed Yes7c303.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e7…723ebacked Yes7c287.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4d…7d08backed Yes6c267.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2df…d455backed Yes6c251.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes5c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2512631.7%40 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd16…9e21backed Yes4c240$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5740…c1a6backed Yes6c232.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc11e…7eedbacked Yes6c230.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7216…e7d0backed Yes7c226.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+267.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8000…3c19backed Yes5c224$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec7…ec89backed Yes5c208.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d00…5745backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45c8…f309backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x279d…1f27backed Yes6c186.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ea…2506backed Yes7c160.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47d3…994bbacked Yes7c149.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.