TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfe14…1a10

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
104
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Middle East, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 62 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT3450%17 W · 17 L+6.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+41.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+172.7%+$95
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.15
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+189.9%+$65.78
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$66.4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+101.9%+$360.9
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$224
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.11
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$391.2
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.47
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.42
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.58
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.7
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+42%+$20.72
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+472.8%+$57.78
US forces enter Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.19
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+346.5%+$1,662.22
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.4
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+130.1%+$374.28
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+132.6%+$34.2
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+108.3%+$36.4
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.72
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.61
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+178.8%+$451.99
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.76
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.24
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.7
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$158.25
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$51.89
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Minnesota Timberwolves?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$11.17
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+69.7%+$84.2
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+316.7%+$79.17
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+136.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+232.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$749Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$749.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Sep 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Bilibili Gamingbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.59
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.