College Football · resolved market
Will Cam Ward win the Heisman Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a502effbc1681281306fa1618302a681fca2e0db2daa44baf7568c634ac5d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 26,648$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -94.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…2cbabacked Yes | 0c | 24,326$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe14…1a10backed Yes | 2c | 11,018$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 6c | 4,264$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.16 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,977$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Yes | 3c | 3,416$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 28c | 2,750$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.8 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…3973backed Yes | 2c | 2,234$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 2,155$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.34 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…50e2backed Yes | 22c | 1,369$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 14c | 1,110$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.27 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…8da9backed Yes | 16c | 1,073$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…ed09backed Yes | 7c | 1,050$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…b51fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,022$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 8c | 1,009$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…4d72backed Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…17a7backed Yes | 22c | 514.83$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +287.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…1bfbbacked Yes | 11c | 502.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 17c | 501.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 7c | 464.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 55c | 435.25$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…6d01backed Yes | 16c | 401$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 25c | 220$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 20c | 211.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 50c | 200.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb947…2a54backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes | 29c | 169.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…64a1backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes | 13c | 141.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 65c | 133.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 80c | 129.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaf…07c2backed Yes | 41c | 122.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 9c | 109.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c3…5350backed Yes | 28c | 107.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf7…712cbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…d4cdbacked Yes | 23c | 47.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 29c | 42.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…ded1backed No | 69c | 29.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked No | 72c | 18.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cam Ward win the Heisman Trophy?this page
- Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Avery Johnson win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dillon Gabriel win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Drew Allar win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Garrett Nussmeier win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jalen Milroe win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jaxson Dart win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Miller Moss win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Nico Iamaleava win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Noah Fifita win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Quinn Ewers win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Riley Leonard win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Shedeur Sanders win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Tetairoa McMillan win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy?Yes won
- Will Will Howard win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will another player win the Heisman Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.