College Football · resolved market
Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x137669a9a7be937f4685ace6edbdaa4f25f8ed367d8b3417d42768f84a88b30c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $416,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 48,919$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -94.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…13a1backed Yes | 0c | 13,084$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…c310backed Yes | 0c | 13,084$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376e…77e9backed Yes | 0c | 13,084$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…bebdbacked Yes | 0c | 13,083$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…f5e3backed Yes | 0c | 10,990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea52…35b9backed Yes | 0c | 10,134$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b2…bbc2backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…88f0backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d8…d83ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x310f…ef60backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0d…ea8abacked Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e9…7037backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…0028backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…5182backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…5388backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…9ac9backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad56…d149backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…32d0backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa275…ba4abacked Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad48…6a3cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e1…cac5backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efa…3a51backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef6…b2a0backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…6ccabacked Yes | 0c | 9,813$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,972$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…5b59backed Yes | 0c | 6,542$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…4d95backed Yes | 0c | 6,542$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b38…4273backed Yes | 0c | 4,836$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy?this page
- Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Avery Johnson win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Cam Ward win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dillon Gabriel win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Drew Allar win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Garrett Nussmeier win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jalen Milroe win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jaxson Dart win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Miller Moss win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Nico Iamaleava win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Noah Fifita win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Quinn Ewers win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Riley Leonard win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Shedeur Sanders win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Tetairoa McMillan win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy?Yes won
- Will Will Howard win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will another player win the Heisman Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.