NBA · resolved market
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99466654a1ef041f6d6b28be01f86d0346e3bbc050b18d57be622b49216bb4d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 4c | 5,154$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.17 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 1c | 3,522$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Yes | 6c | 2,592$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -41%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…dff5backed Yes | 16c | 1,663$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc05…29bcbacked Yes | 12c | 848.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f56…4a71backed Yes | 7c | 846.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…39e6backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 436$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…1c66backed Yes | 7c | 419.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 392.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…4afabacked Yes | 20c | 364.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…bb13backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 298.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 8c | 295$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 6c | 230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…eff0backed Yes | 7c | 228.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 216.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 6c | 211.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…f793backed Yes | 6c | 186.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yes | 15c | 184.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +82%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe14…1a10backed Yes | 11c | 166.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked Yes | 9c | 141.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…8438backed Yes | 11c | 129.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…8b45backed Yes | 20c | 127.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a48…ba21backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 21c | 72.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c4…dff6backed Yes | 67c | 36.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3641…43f9backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.2wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27?this page
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Yes won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2026-27?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.