Token Launches · resolved market
Canton FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ccec4ef8b23de309a3aadfa9595fb1ff8dffe5ce20478e85efe77bca127de98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6779…0400backed No | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +498%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked No | 3c | 8,301$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 2c | 7,446$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890b…bdc6backed No | 1c | 7,100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…1470backed No | 2c | 7,020$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 2c | 6,595$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 1c | 6,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5418…aaabbacked No | 1c | 5,353$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…b17fbacked No | 1c | 5,053$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed No | 1c | 3,162$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,750$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…a8e2backed No | 1c | 2,597$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,061$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…bc95backed No | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 1,871$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 1c | 1,830$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…534ebacked No | 2c | 1,600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…2fe4backed No | 1c | 1,025$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 2c | 825.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…a6e0backed No | 1c | 740.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 2c | 705.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 3c | 512.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…ea83backed Yes | 78c | 43.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canton FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Canton FDV above $10B one day after launch?No won
- Canton FDV above $14B one day after launch?No won
- Canton FDV above $3B one day after launch?Yes won
- Canton FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Canton FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.