Token Launches · resolved market
Canton FDV above $5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04816394103af291b2aacae9a0e3fa7458ea65b638869b62f4d94610cf342d64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.99 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed Yes | 44c | 2,334$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…3a41backed Yes | 24c | 2,072$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 3c | 1,963$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed Yes | 30c | 1,482$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.91 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 5c | 1,448$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed Yes | 52c | 1,276$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce2…f6c2backed No | 51c | 1,201$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.73 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…ae63backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 13c | 954.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 940.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 52c | 870.04$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.05 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 56c | 803.15$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.77 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…f7e3backed Yes | 48c | 792.01$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 47c | 767.94$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.37 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…2fe4backed No | 56c | 700$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…9062backed No | 50c | 459.84$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed No | 69c | 378$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.13 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 6c | 345.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 306.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 270.44$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 18c | 241.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab93…f0bbbacked No | 58c | 221.19$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc570…5557backed No | 45c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…8655backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…48cabacked Yes | 56c | 177.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed No | 52c | 126.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…03a5backed Yes | 57c | 121.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 14c | 119.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 26c | 116.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…99fbbacked Yes | 44c | 113.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…c4e9backed No | 46c | 112.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 55c | 102.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7f06backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa207…bcdcbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3619…a8febacked Yes | 42c | 95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 80.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 48c | 74.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f2…b27abacked Yes | 60c | 66.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…5753backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…8a3fbacked No | 47c | 59.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…51b4backed No | 51c | 58.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f5…e6f4backed Yes | 59c | 58.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 54c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 66c | 55.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x894d…6916backed No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c24…ae45backed Yes | 44c | 45.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c5…8d89backed No | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…bcfcbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…2de6backed Yes | 68c | 38.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…8823backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce5…8476backed No | 52c | 29.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canton FDV above $5B one day after launch?this page
- Canton FDV above $10B one day after launch?No won
- Canton FDV above $14B one day after launch?No won
- Canton FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Canton FDV above $3B one day after launch?Yes won
- Canton FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.