Token Launches · resolved market
Canton FDV above $10B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ab57e9ab2b8ad7ab59a1bed22118161fd18fad6c9534a5ecf26912c3f1c5be7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93f9…e350backed Yes | 0c | 10,990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +217.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,716$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…c54bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,679$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…3a41backed Yes | 18c | 999.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes | 10c | 985.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 4c | 640$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ef…dfb8backed Yes | 18c | 637$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 24c | 507.57$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 5c | 469.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 450$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 427.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 12c | 400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x007a…0536backed Yes | 43c | 370.76$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x346d…675abacked Yes | 25c | 353.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed No | 58c | 315$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…68b8backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…bde3backed Yes | 17c | 279.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 67c | 245.4$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…3771backed Yes | 13c | 210.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4399…6b4bbacked Yes | 17c | 209.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21be…8425backed Yes | 12c | 200.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…9a61backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…c9e2backed Yes | 14c | 197.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfe…6455backed Yes | 14c | 196.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…186cbacked Yes | 13c | 189.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…2e65backed Yes | 12c | 189.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9268…8d50backed Yes | 14c | 188.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a4…1996backed Yes | 8c | 178.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…3da6backed Yes | 17c | 178.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…a8f8backed Yes | 13c | 177.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…4cdbbacked Yes | 17c | 177.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e8…cdc0backed Yes | 12c | 176.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…1035backed Yes | 13c | 174.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568d…b0e3backed Yes | 8c | 170.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcf…4ce6backed Yes | 12c | 166.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…6435backed Yes | 12c | 165.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…fd3abacked Yes | 14c | 164.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f9…e4fdbacked Yes | 8c | 162.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…62e6backed Yes | 12c | 152.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaf…bf56backed Yes | 25c | 147.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…8476backed Yes | 26c | 146.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…e6f6backed No | 80c | 145.09$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f2…b27abacked Yes | 33c | 141.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…c365backed Yes | 15c | 135.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 134.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 465 | 20.4%95 W · 370 L | -68.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 123.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 16c | 105.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…ea83backed Yes | 37c | 95.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…e9cdbacked No | 68c | 68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 66c | 32.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 77c | 18.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…5f4dbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canton FDV above $10B one day after launch?this page
- Canton FDV above $14B one day after launch?No won
- Canton FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Canton FDV above $3B one day after launch?Yes won
- Canton FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Canton FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.