Token Launches · resolved market
Canton FDV above $3B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb75088638bca30897ec6be71f5bf3578f18b52f397547e148e642daaddf50de8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 4c | 10,000$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.65 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 6,799$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.31 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 17c | 5,058$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.47 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x546b…0405backed No | 16c | 4,600$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +7.4wins | +0.41per pick | 42cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…bc95backed No | 13c | 4,000$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…9a61backed No | 9c | 2,431$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 2,106$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 13c | 2,000$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…b17fbacked No | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked No | 2c | 1,600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…5753backed No | 9c | 1,570$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 8c | 1,486$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 10c | 1,361$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3817backed No | 15c | 1,305$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 1,250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…2fe4backed No | 8c | 1,200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…bd10backed No | 9c | 1,114$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked No | 11c | 1,046$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed No | 7c | 1,027$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 13c | 999$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.87 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 6c | 935.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 873.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 5c | 873.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a13…12dbbacked No | 10c | 850$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed No | 7c | 762.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…b6f4backed No | 13c | 720$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 14c | 703.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed No | 11c | 696.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce2…f6c2backed No | 11c | 637.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…0615backed No | 17c | 578.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…9f84backed Yes | 78c | 558.81$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 10c | 554.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked No | 7c | 527.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…a6e0backed No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 19c | 500$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…6adbbacked No | 15c | 446.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed No | 10c | 443.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked No | 20c | 423.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…5711backed No | 3c | 362$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…534ebacked No | 5c | 318.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab3…4b1bbacked No | 15c | 310$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 8c | 307.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…c1aabacked No | 13c | 303.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed No | 12c | 299.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 9c | 293.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…c4e9backed No | 9c | 290$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 283.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 262.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…b27dbacked No | 5c | 260$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 9c | 226.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed No | 25c | 200.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…3441backed No | 7c | 198.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 13c | 191.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…5ff1backed No | 11c | 187.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198d…fc31backed No | 7c | 181.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 10c | 169.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…4ca9backed No | 7c | 164.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…7acebacked No | 7c | 152.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…1b25backed No | 14c | 142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 17c | 125.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 13c | 113.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20e…6901backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 37c | 96.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736b…8da6backed No | 22c | 90.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 78c | 79.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…55fcbacked Yes | 75c | 76.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafc…b5a8backed No | 18c | 58.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canton FDV above $3B one day after launch?this page
- Canton FDV above $10B one day after launch?No won
- Canton FDV above $14B one day after launch?No won
- Canton FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Canton FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Canton FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.