TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Canton FDV above $6B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,803 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab51…2473backed Yes1c124,917$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.1713422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,267$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.777663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fc…85a7backed No58c3,342$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.481752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+374.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76a3…5249backed Yes44c3,200$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.421127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes6c2,643$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.332917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+166%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked No56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+44.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked No68c1,872$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.463548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c1,144$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.732377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes6c1,000$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6917…84d2backed No73c935.57$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e27…c659backed Yes33c912.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006114.8%9 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0213…f7e3backed Yes35c846.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.962642.3%11 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No62c731.51$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.3712840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d0c…6b78backed Yes31c709.82$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.862835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No57c676$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.15655.4%31 W · 25 L+13.4wins+0.24per pick31cpaid+86.6%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0xc3be…1a55backed Yes38c532.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked No43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2851747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+77.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2854544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed No64c499.99$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1797231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e4…03a5backed Yes23c492.59$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.142725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes10c440.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.095427.8%15 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00da…2fe4backed No67c409.13$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.012152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+70.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f0a…4618backed Yes37c400$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1492630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f22…16d3backed Yes12c374.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+57.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No62c353.09$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.314732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9eaf…bf56backed Yes38c342.11$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x270f…01efbacked Yes33c341.8$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d5…5753backed No62c326.7$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.852035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes34c323.4$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1108337.3%31 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f9…e350backed Yes38c315$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+217.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb205…26c8backed Yes41c313.26$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4470…43e7backed Yes34c310$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0426…d8d8backed Yes33c306.8$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ef…dfb8backed Yes37c290$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbe…d65dbacked Yes35c283.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.952825%7 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc91b…f983backed No67c260$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…853bbacked No67c255$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ce…65edbacked No67c255$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90fa…1322backed No67c255$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fa…e386backed Yes33c252$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes10c243.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2416927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c242.5$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1419336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No61c231.63$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.091957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4a1…6e11backed Yes43c231$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…c1aabacked No59c224.63$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.761050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b6…3817backed No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704852.1%25 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x459b…cb0bbacked Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c1…68b8backed Yes43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44ff…997fbacked No57c175.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.533528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd62b…86d0backed No67c149.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf804…311fbacked Yes42c144.38$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes11c142.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4925422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa207…bcdcbacked Yes32c141$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc570…5557backed No56c140.68$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.93240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-17%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes28c139.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6513424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No73c137.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.45339.6%21 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb203…1f24backed Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3557…f7dcbacked Yes36c126.9$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98b7…4947backed Yes27c117.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.741216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc29e…0995backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0d…dc21backed Yes47c107.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed No62c105$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.457047.1%33 W · 37 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7c63…9da6backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.264161%25 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5bd…d122backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9582…9891backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick23cpaid+12.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc1e…4107backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb6c…5711backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa712…bcddbacked No63c94.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes39c89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.713729.7%11 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes25c60.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0920422.1%45 W · 159 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72b4…7f06backed Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa772…b445backed No53c57.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275945.8%27 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cec…a753backed Yes38c56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-54.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed Yes21c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.251631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8f…2770backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfcf…f16abacked No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e06…c8c6backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No78c46.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0533329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes43c46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.782850%14 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c40.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1221240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x007a…0536backed Yes37c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ed5…8a3fbacked No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5f…e612backed No58c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.981952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.