Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f27d96bfac8a9c152718575e23e3365e2474b65b13f447bd7aa0d316e47657d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 14c | 9,598$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.4 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 9c | 8,164$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.99 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 22c | 4,224$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.17 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 10c | 2,569$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.65 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed Yes | 19c | 2,320$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.42 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 8c | 2,308$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.07 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 2,138$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…43c0backed Yes | 4c | 2,094$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 28c | 1,421$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.53 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,375$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 10c | 1,120$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 975.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 891.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 6c | 670.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 649.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 646.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…a600backed Yes | 19c | 561.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b3…f5afbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 38c | 445.61$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.27 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 14c | 444.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 26c | 419.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…57f2backed Yes | 29c | 345.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…2f08backed Yes | 27c | 345.03$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 7c | 322.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 266$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 26c | 251.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 5c | 210.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes | 28c | 179.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 19c | 164$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…e6a4backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…7e53backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32d…43aabacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 21c | 51.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4d…3b23backed Yes | 29c | 51.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 53c | 30.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on June 13?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 13?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on June 13?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 13?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.